When Collin Knopp-Schwyn waits for a bus in Oakland, they’re never quite sure it will actually show up. "There have been a couple instances recently where I've had ghost buses," they say, or routes that appear a few minutes away on their phone. But when the bus is supposed to arrive, "they just aren't anywhere to be found."
For East Bay residents who rely on AC Transit, longer wait times are becoming harder to contend with. Now, a mounting budget crisis is making uncertainty harder to ignore.
Aida Ndiaye rides the bus every day during her commutes in Oakland. She’s noticed new problems since the AC Transit board released their realignment plan, which saw the board overhaul 85% of bus routes across the East Bay. Many riders say the changes result in longer waits, more complicated commutes, reduced access to key destinations, and deeper transit inequities for working-class communities that rely heavily on public transportation. Ndiaye says the bus is more crowded in the evenings as people return from work and students travel to extracurricular activities. During those peak hours, she says, her commute can sometimes be “rowdy.”
AC Transit is projecting annual operating deficits of roughly $60 million beginning in 2027–28, and while California has offered a one-time $55 million operating loan to stabilize service for the coming fiscal year, this bandaid may only last so long. Robert Lyles, an AC Transit representative, says they are expecting to face significant budget shortfalls over at least the next five years if they do not secure new, long-term funding. “The state bridge loan gives us breathing room for 2027…but that support does not exist for 2028, where the deficit is forecasted at $43 million,” he says.
On March 25, the AC Transit Board of Directors approved a contingent Alternate Service Plan that outlines two scenarios for potential cuts if new funding isn't secured. If AC Transit is unable to secure funding, the worst-case scenario would reduce bus service by up to 16% and eliminate as many as 300 jobs across all positions. However, if new long-term funding materializes, including a potential local sales tax initiative, no reductions will go into effect. But the Alternative Service Plan, which the Board will vote on in detail come June 10, puts into formal language what many riders are feeling — the system is under pressure.
"I just think that that is generally the norm here," said Julia DeMarines, who has lived in the East Bay for over a decade. "You're either hella thriving, or you're not. And most people are not." The transit pressures point to a broader affordability picture, one underscored by the East Bay’s rent increases driven by the spillover demand from San Francisco and the Peninsula due to the resurgence of tech and AI employment.
Although the two budget scenarios differ in severity, neither scenario targets specific bus lines yet, and all routes are under review. The Alternative Service Plan is designed to protect Realign, the core network launched in summer 2025, with the goal of preserving as much of the existing system as possible rather than redesigning it from scratch. Lyles encourages riders and community members to attend and share comments at the public board meetings to stay informed about the vote on June 10th.
For new riders like Zoe Goldstein, who moved to Oakland in January and mostly rides the bus after working hours, the news lands with particular weight. She described the system as more reliable than New York's MTA or San Francisco's Muni during late hours. A low bar, maybe, but a meaningful one for someone for whom transit isn't optional. Goldstein voiced hope that a proposed sales tax initiative, estimated to generate about $980 million per year for Bay Area transportation agencies, would help keep service intact.
Knopp-Schwyn, who grew up in Minneapolis where buses run frequently and carry broad ridership across income levels, describes how the longer waits and less frequent service push out casual riders, leaving buses primarily as a last resort for people with no alternatives. While they describe service disruptions as a personal inconvenience, Knopp-Schwyn worries the effects could be life-altering for people who depend on transit to meet basic needs. They live near a big medical center with a few buses nearby that serve the greater hospital complex, “and any kind of disruption to that transit infrastructure is not going to be good.”
Nick Ward, who has lived on the Berkeley-Oakland border for nearly two years, takes the bus everyday. For Ward, the unreliability of AC Transit is almost worse than the long wait times. Sometimes bus drivers will leave stops five minutes earlier than their arrival time, or five minutes later. “It's recommended to get here, like, 15 minutes before I'm supposed to leave,” says Ward. “15 minutes is a long time to be at the bus stop.” In his experience, the bus conditions, scheduling consistency, and the accuracy of transit apps have noticeably deteriorated over the past six months.
Despite frustration with reliability, AC Transit is a defining feature of East Bay life. Ndiaye, who can’t drive, simply cannot survive without AC Transit. “I'd be so sad. I take this everywhere.” Riders may be frustrated with how well it functions, but as Ward put it, reliable public transit is “super important in the Bay,” especially for those who do not own cars because of limited parking availability.
DeMarines isn't interested in tech innovations that just add more cars to already congested roads. “What the heck is a Waymo anyway?" The question isn't rhetorical. If the Bay area can pilot driverless cars on public streets, why aren't we investing funds in public transit instead?
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